Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,215
2 New Jersey 19,073
3 Massachusetts 15,554
4 Rhode Island 15,536
5 District of Columbia 14,251
6 Connecticut 12,841
7 Delaware 11,111
8 Illinois 10,938
9 Louisiana 10,831
10 Maryland 10,784
11 Nebraska 9,282
12 Iowa 8,309
13 Arizona 7,524
14 Mississippi 7,488
15 South Dakota 7,150
16 Virginia 6,849
17 Michigan 6,823
18 Pennsylvania 6,769
19 Indiana 6,492
20 Alabama 6,211
21 Georgia 5,905
22 Minnesota 5,897
23 Utah 5,625
24 Arkansas 5,329
25 Colorado 5,329
26 Tennessee 5,162
27 North Carolina 5,133
28 New Mexico 5,100
29 South Carolina 4,991
30 California 4,672
31 Florida 4,665
32 Nevada 4,407
33 North Dakota 4,355
34 Wisconsin 4,324
35 Kansas 4,316
36 Texas 4,126
37 New Hampshire 4,087
38 Washington 3,997
39 Ohio 3,895
40 Kentucky 3,149
41 Missouri 3,052
42 Oklahoma 2,712
43 Idaho 2,387
44 Maine 2,210
45 Wyoming 2,125
46 Puerto Rico 2,055
47 Vermont 1,863
48 Oregon 1,680
49 West Virginia 1,434
50 Alaska 1,187
51 Montana 686
52 Hawaii 567

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 359
2 South Carolina 198
3 Florida 162
4 Arkansas 160
5 Utah 150
6 Mississippi 141
7 Texas 141
8 Louisiana 123
9 North Carolina 121
10 California 116
11 Nevada 113
12 Georgia 112
13 Alabama 98
14 Oklahoma 86
15 Iowa 83
16 Tennessee 80
17 Idaho 73
18 Delaware 71
19 Minnesota 70
20 New Mexico 68
21 Virginia 65
22 Nebraska 63
23 South Dakota 63
24 Washington 61
25 Maryland 58
26 Missouri 51
27 Ohio 51
28 District of Columbia 50
29 Wisconsin 49
30 Kansas 46
31 Illinois 44
32 Indiana 44
33 Oregon 40
34 North Dakota 38
35 Puerto Rico 38
36 Rhode Island 38
37 Pennsylvania 35
38 New Jersey 34
39 Kentucky 33
40 New York 33
41 Wyoming 32
42 Colorado 29
43 Michigan 28
44 Massachusetts 27
45 Alaska 21
46 Connecticut 21
47 Montana 21
48 West Virginia 19
49 New Hampshire 17
50 Maine 14
51 Vermont 10
52 Hawaii 6

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,590
2 New Jersey 1,451
3 Connecticut 1,195
4 Massachusetts 1,142
5 Rhode Island 852
6 District of Columbia 758
7 Louisiana 670
8 Michigan 610
9 Illinois 543
10 Maryland 508
11 Pennsylvania 505
12 Delaware 446
13 Indiana 379
14 Mississippi 328
15 Colorado 286
16 Minnesota 251
17 New Hampshire 249
18 Georgia 245
19 Ohio 231
20 New Mexico 223
21 Iowa 217
22 Virginia 189
23 Arizona 186
24 Alabama 171
25 Washington 167
26 Missouri 159
27 Nevada 159
28 Florida 147
29 California 140
30 Nebraska 131
31 South Carolina 127
32 Wisconsin 127
33 Kentucky 122
34 North Carolina 119
35 North Dakota 108
36 Oklahoma 93
37 South Dakota 91
38 Vermont 89
39 Kansas 88
40 Tennessee 76
41 Texas 76
42 Arkansas 75
43 Maine 75
44 Idaho 60
45 West Virginia 50
46 Utah 49
47 Puerto Rico 46
48 Oregon 45
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 19
51 Alaska 13
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Idaho 3
2 Massachusetts 3
3 Mississippi 3
4 Connecticut 2
5 District of Columbia 2
6 Illinois 2
7 Louisiana 2
8 Maryland 2
9 New Jersey 2
10 New York 2
11 Rhode Island 2
12 Alabama 1
13 Arizona 1
14 Arkansas 1
15 California 1
16 Florida 1
17 Indiana 1
18 Michigan 1
19 Minnesota 1
20 Nebraska 1
21 Nevada 1
22 Ohio 1
23 South Carolina 1
24 Alaska 0
25 Colorado 0
26 Delaware 0
27 Georgia 0
28 Hawaii 0
29 Iowa 0
30 Kansas 0
31 Kentucky 0
32 Maine 0
33 Missouri 0
34 Montana 0
35 New Hampshire 0
36 New Mexico 0
37 North Carolina 0
38 North Dakota 0
39 Oklahoma 0
40 Oregon 0
41 Pennsylvania 0
42 Puerto Rico 0
43 South Dakota 0
44 Tennessee 0
45 Texas 0
46 Utah 0
47 Vermont 0
48 Virginia 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 129,918 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,204 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 87,536 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 85,066 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 79,545 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 11,800 225 92
Richland South Carolina 6,537 541 82
Orange California 3,336 1102 64
York South Carolina 3,061 1186 62
Pierce Washington 2,873 1246 60

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,393 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,391 5 99
Richland South Carolina 192 641 79
Davidson Tennessee 138 806 74
Pierce Washington 102 969 69
Orange California 85 1074 65
York South Carolina 39 1490 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons